The Flat Curve

I've been having thoughts about the enemy: Coronavirus, aka Covid-19. If you want to respond with a rebuttal or two, that's great, but please be nice to me. I'm a tad fragile, emotionally, right now, and besides, I would be nice to you, so that's kind of what I expect from others. 

Flatten the Curve

What does it mean to flatten the curve? It means to slow the spread. It was never meant to stop the virus. We locked down to help slow down the disease so our hospitals would not be overwhelmed like those we saw in Northern Italy and in Iran and other places. We now have half-empty hospitals all over many states in the U.S. and some are even having to furlough employees, or send them somewhere else to work. So either flattening the curve by lockdown worked, or some places are less populous and maybe wouldn't have had overrun hospitals anyway- we'll probably never know for sure. 

Slow the Spread

So we've done that part, right? We've slowed the thing down. That accomplished, it's time to start rolling back the lockdown and getting small businesses open and running again. 
WAITAMINUTE
If I say that 👆 in our current emotionally and politically charged climate, I will be accused of "not caring about lives" because people have come to believe that ending the lockdown means people will die. 

However, I have a thing to say on that.

What You're Not Being Told

What everyone seems to have forgotten about flattening the curve to slow the spread is that people are still going to die. Probably the same number of people as would have died had we not locked down. Suppose the estimates were that 200,000 people would get sick and 10,000 people would die from the virus in the U.S. (I'm just grabbing numbers here, no stats or actual estimates). Slowing it down means that instead of all 200,000 getting sick in March and April, they will get it over many more months. And that entire 10,000 would still be projected to die. But no one is saying this- it's brutal, it's painful, but it is true.

We literally cannot remain in lockdown until a vaccine is ready or until people stop getting the virus. A vaccine could take years if it ever comes. You remember the common cold, right? Super common virus, and... no vaccine. And the harsh reality is that poverty is no picnic, either. We are trading time for people's ability to feed their families and pay their bills. I'm not being hyperbolic, either. The 10,000 are still expected to die, remember? Just more spread out than if he hadn't locked down. But the longer the country remains shut down, the more people will lose their jobs or businesses. 

Am I saying we should put their jobs ahead of lives? Of course not. But... sadly, those lives are part of the projected losses to the virus anyway, remember? That sounds cold. I know, our elderly and immune-compromised are people whom we love. We can't imagine "allowing" them to get sick. 

But we can't stop it from happening, guys. Eventually, most of us will get it, and it will be up to individuals to try and stay healthy, just like with other viruses that go around. 

And That's the Thing

Consider this: Those in power who decided the lockdown was necessary knew this going in. They knew that they were just postponing most of those deaths, not stopping them. 

But for some reason the rhetoric and language has changed from "slow the spread" and "flatten the curve" to "If you go back to normal, people will die and it will be on [insert politician's name]'s head." 

Um. No. This virus is not any U.S. citizen's fault. None of us are to blame. None of us set it loose on the world, and none of us has the power to contain it. That's the stark reality. It is going to kill people we love as well as people we don't know. It's deadly.

The virus has become a political football and many people are not thinking for themselves-- the shaming of business owners and employees who want to work is appalling. How can we not be supportive and excited at the prospect of returning to something like normal? How can we not be thrilled if a company feels like it can start paying its employees again? 

Don't get caught up in the rhetoric you are hearing online or on the news or comedy shows you are watching-- stop and think. 

Flattening the curve was done to SLOW the virus down, not to STOP it. Don't get that mixed up. 

So Now What?

Remember, it's not an all or nothing world. There are many choices. 

This is where good old American ingenuity comes in. We're not helpless, nor are we at the mercy of politicians. We have to find a balance between further destroying the economy (and real peoples' lives) and doing what we can to protect the most at-risk.

We could start by opening businesses in counties that are best equipped-- near-empty hospital, people naturally distanced from each other (some of us are spread out, not like NYC), and still ask people to do a couple of common sense things:

1. If you are sick, stay home. 
2. If you go out and are worried about sharing something you may have picked up, wear a mask. 
3. If you are worried about your health, take the same precautions you would with any virus.  
4. I would even say that if your company is able to function with employees working from home, maybe they could do so for another month or more, depending on where you are in the country.

And trust people. I truly don't know anyone who will be actively trying to get others sick. We can elevate our sanitation standards, we can teach our children to wipe down their desks and chairs and we can protect those most at risk and get people back to work.

Asking Questions

So the question is: We are locked down until... what? Until the virus is gone? Not going to happen- reports are coming out about it mutating, which will make it even more difficult to defeat. If we are locking down until we slow down infection rates, well, that has been achieved in most of the United States. It's time to move forward, scary as it is.

And we all need to start really considering what we're being told-- ask questions-- don't just absorb the emotions fed to you through your screens-- stop and think. Don't be manipulated. 

Let's remember that we are all human beings here, trying to do the best we can with what we have. We are all trying to survive and thrive, and we can be more supportive and positive and less emotionally reactive and scornful of those who disagree with us. 

Slow down, think, and really question what you are being told. We aren't getting all the information, nor are we getting the whole story, becase a lot of things here are UNKNOWN. But people will still speak about these issues as though they are experts. Don't believe everything you hear, even if it's from someone you like and respect. It's time to get this country back online. We can do it, together.